The death of Osama bin Laden and other Al-Qaeda's executives combined with the coordinated operations of the anti-terrorist alliance led to the weakening of the organization from 2011 onwards. A terrorist organization that shocked the world for a decade and was responsible for the biggest terrorist hit in history.
However, logically, radical -fundamental Islam would weaken until it disappears. Wrong. The developments with the "Arab Spring" proved that it was not only disappeared, rather it returned stronger in the form of ISIS, whereas other terrorist organizations, including Al- Qaeda allied with it. Why did this happen?
From past to the present
The19th century, a change in the Muslim and especially in the Arab world took place. The Muslim regions passed into the dominance of European Christian empires. The European colonizers imposed their power on territories that the Ottoman Empire and other conservative Muslim regimes dominated. Islam, therefore, accepted the European (western) influence. This development gave rise to two trends: one related to some Muslim scholars who tried to bring the Western and Islamic traditions together. The other concerned those who rejected anything of Western origin and proposed the return of Muslims to the traditional way of life. Thus, the two tendencies that would "mark" the Islamic world began to emerge: the secularism and the conservatism that would eventually turn into radicalism - terrorism.
The dissolution of the Ottoman Empire and the imposition of Mustafa Kemal's western-style regime in Turkey, colonialism in the Muslim world and the prevalence of elements of Western culture in independent Muslim states since 1945 led to the consolidation in most countries of secular regimes, i.e. political forces who did not adopt religious conservatism. At the same time, they led to the emergence of Islamist organizations struggling to overthrow secularism and impose God's will on Earth and politics. These forces appeared strongly within the states and quickly turned into powerful political factions that opposed the secular regimes and had resonance with the pious people. Their appeal was great because the secularization was limited to a circle of educated officers and politicians, at the same time that people and especially the provincials were devoutly practicing their religious duties and the secular leadership for them was something strange.
The secular regimes perceiving the threat mercilessly persecuted the Islamists by imprisoning, exiling, and killing them. At the same time, in the early post-war years, they introduced a political program to upgrade the position of the citizens. They tried in every way to fight the Islamic ideology and faction. There have been some successes until the late 1970s. Two crucial events occurred then: the Islamic Revolution in Iran (1979) and the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan (1979). The former overthrew the corrupt and secular regime of the Shah and brought into power an Islamic one led by Ayatollah Khomeini. The second was to get the Soviets to gain access to the Gulf and consolidate communist ideology in Central Asia. These developments terrified the US, who saw their security system in the area on the brink of collapse. However, the American leadership would be determined to hold a risky stance.
The Islamic Revolution was not a good event for Washington. It toppled a loyal ally in the region and brought an anti-imperialist and religious conservative form into power. Iran was too "big" for the US to lose it. It is no coincidence that the US held a strict and tough stance against Tehran. Conservative Islam, however, was not an enemy somewhere else: in Afghanistan. The CIA, aware that in the USSR there were also conservative Muslim populations, began to print before these two events the Qur'an in copies to share it in the above populations and to incite rebellions and revolutions within the Soviet territory. However, this tactic did not yield the expectations due to the effective action of the KGB. In Afghanistan, Washington could help the Islamists. And it did it.
The strategy of US presidents Carter and Reagan was the following: to organize a guerrilla struggle against the Red Army in the Afghan mountains supporting the Islamic militants. They would use the religion to oppose an atheist country. To strengthen their strategy, they approached their close and rich partner, Saudi Arabia. Riyadh would take the responsibility alongside CIA to send money, weapons, and fighters in order to enhance the Islamic guerrillas (mujahideen). The result was an intense guerrilla warfare that was perceived by a multitude of Muslims as a religious war for the establishment of a caliphate and which irreparably damaged the Soviets. Indeed, he forced them to leave and fairly Afghanistan was called "the Vietnam of the Soviets". Many Saudis were also distinguished in this war. One of them was Osama bin Laden, an associate of the Americans
The success of Islamism in Afghanistan also affected the Islamist organizations within Muslim states. The secular governments that had been terrified by the Iranian Revolution now experienced new fear. The corruption, the downgrading of the quality of life of the citizens and economic hardships led a lot of people, especially the young ones, to get radicalized. So, the number of the fighters grew not only among the teams of mujahedin but also among the local organizations. Islam, with the promise of social care, was the right alternative. In the early 1980s, local organizations thwarted the secular regimes even reaching the murder of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat.
At the start of the post-Cold War era, the conservative Islam that had emerged with Iran and had been forged and publicized with Afghanistan would generate new challenges. Muslims who had collaborated with the West against the Soviet Union had now become powerful and questioned the status quo. Bin Laden was one of them. He founded Al-Qaida, a terrorist organization which goals were the return of the pious Muslims to the way of life of the first Muslims (fundamentalism), the proclamation of a sacred war against the imperialist West with particular emphasis on the United States and the overthrow of secular and corrupt Muslim regimes. At the same time, it was trying to recruit fighters and aspiring suicide bombers from across the Islamic world. It was a transnational, terrorist, Islamist organization.
The "red" fear was followed by the "Islamist" fear in the post-Cold War era. Throughout the 1990s, Al-Qaeda became a dangerous opponent for Washington, its appeal grew, its networks were expanded and Osama bin Laden became one of the most famous people in the world. In 1998, he terrorized the Clinton government with two bombing attacks against US targets in eastern Africa. At the same time, from Afghanistan, where he had found refuge in the Taliban's conservative Islamic regime, bin Laden and his colleagues were controlling their networks and were organizing their attacks.
In the same decade, the activity of Islamic radical organizations became evident in Islamic and non-Islamic countries, from Central Asia and the Caucasus to the MENA region. The dissolution of the USSR and the chaos it caused combined with poverty led to the "Caucasus Emirate". Degraded living conditions, corruption, authoritarianism, Islamic ideas, the pro-western stance of the regimes and the uncertainty of the future also exacerbated many Egyptians and Algerians. Egypt occasionally experienced a peculiar civil war, while Algeria experienced a lethal civil war. Radical Islam had survived.
But Al-Qaeda was an international threat, not a regional one. It contested the American hegemony and caused friction between USA and its allies because of the insecurity that prevailed. The US intelligence services therefore began to gather information on Al Qaeda. The conflict was clear now. In 2000, Al-Qaeda hit an American warship in Yemen. On September 11, 2001, the World Trade Center and the Pentagon were hit by Al- Qaeda, its first strike into US territory. The international radical Islam and the organization that promoted it had enormous power and could reach any target. The US government reacted dynamically. It created an alliance of states willing to fight international Islamic terrorism. The "War on Terror" as it was called, included military and espionage operations. It also involved Muslim secular, pro-Western countries. In October 2001, NATO bombed Afghanistan, the Taliban regime collapsed, and a power vacuum was created in the country that would cause great problems in the future. It could be said that humanity was in turmoil of a cultural war.
In 2003, the United States and United Kingdom invaded Iraq and overturned their ally Saddam Hussein. The power gap created would have unpleasant consequences. On the one hand, Iran, an enemy of Iraq, has benefited and increased its influence on the Shiite populations of the country. On the other hand, Al-Qaeda guerrilla groups - who had in the meantime attracted officers of the defeated Iraqi army - took action against Western occupation troops. The latter would undertake a very difficult task for some years, trying to neutralize the Islamist groups. Despite Washington's attempts to create a government, Islamism was tingling. Finaly, the Americans managed to limit al-Qaeda's guerrilla groups. But they did not beat them. Sectarian violence and economic cessation in Iraq offered opportunities to Islamists.
In 2005, a new bloody attack in London caused shock in western societies. Al-Qaeda was everywhere. The conflict between Christianity / West and fundamentalist Islam was a fact. At the same time, the Russians were living in Chechnya with the negative consequences of Muslim terrorism. Southeast Asia, in turn, was transformed into a field of action by Al Qaeda.
In December 2010, protesters flooded the streets in Tunis. They protested against Ben Ali's secular, authoritarian and long-standing regime. The demonstrations with the new year quickly spread to other states with authoritarian regimes and were called "Arab Spring". The name was a variation of the "Spring of the Peoples" a series of uprisings and revolutions by European people, demanding better economic, social and political conditions that shook the monarchies in Europe in the 19th century. The same demands were made by the Arab protesters.
However, Arab uprisings would bring radical Islam into a more upgraded form. The regimes in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen collapsed and within chaos, a vacuum of power and security was created that Islamists covered except for Tunisia. Guerrilla warfare divisions began to operate in Libya and Egypt, bringing the authorities into trouble. At the same time, in Syria, where the demonstrations were many, the Assad regime resisted. Then, the West used a "tool" that had also been used in Afghanistan: the equipment of the opposition and the entry of radical Islamists in the country to take action against the government. Thus, Islamism was used to crush a Muslim and more liberal regime that was not so pro-Western. At the same time, in May 2011, a US Army special forces operation contributed to the killing of Al-Qaeda's leader in Pakistan, an act that caused awe and anger.
These actions created ISIS. Its action began in Iraq and expanded to Syria, on lands not controlled by the Syrian Army. Thus, the civil war between the government and the opposition became transnational as Islamic militants entered it, as well as the most powerful countries on the planet. From 2013 to 2017, the Assad regime suffered many shocks, but it did not collapse. In the period 2014-2016, ISIS was powerful. It controlled much of Iraq and Syria forcing the US to form a coalition to fight it. It had evolved into a global threat because it had not only made more victories than Al-Qaeda in the battlefield but also because it could recruit militants from all over the world - Muslim and non-Muslim. The promise of military action, a better life based on traditional customs and the ultimate goal of establishing a global caliphate, were quite convincing reasons to attract many members. In addition to military success, ISIS fans have carried out many terrorist acts in Europe, imitating al-Qaida and causing terror in Western societies. Finally, ISIS skillfully exploited the internet to establish a "digital caliphate" that would make it an important player in cyberspace and it could bring its message to every Muslim wherever he/she may be. It was obvious that he had overshadowed al-Qaida.
But Al-Qaeda was an international threat, not a regional one. It contested the American hegemony and caused friction between USA and its allies because of the insecurity that prevailed. The US intelligence services therefore began to gather information on Al Qaeda. The conflict was clear now. In 2000, Al-Qaeda hit an American warship in Yemen. On September 11, 2001, the World Trade Center and the Pentagon were hit by Al- Qaeda, its first strike into US territory. The international radical Islam and the organization that promoted it had enormous power and could reach any target. The US government reacted dynamically. It created an alliance of states willing to fight international Islamic terrorism. The "War on Terror" as it was called, included military and espionage operations. It also involved Muslim secular, pro-Western countries. In October 2001, NATO bombed Afghanistan, the Taliban regime collapsed, and a power vacuum was created in the country that would cause great problems in the future. It could be said that humanity was in turmoil of a cultural war.
In 2003, the United States and United Kingdom invaded Iraq and overturned their ally Saddam Hussein. The power gap created would have unpleasant consequences. On the one hand, Iran, an enemy of Iraq, has benefited and increased its influence on the Shiite populations of the country. On the other hand, Al-Qaeda guerrilla groups - who had in the meantime attracted officers of the defeated Iraqi army - took action against Western occupation troops. The latter would undertake a very difficult task for some years, trying to neutralize the Islamist groups. Despite Washington's attempts to create a government, Islamism was tingling. Finaly, the Americans managed to limit al-Qaeda's guerrilla groups. But they did not beat them. Sectarian violence and economic cessation in Iraq offered opportunities to Islamists.
In 2005, a new bloody attack in London caused shock in western societies. Al-Qaeda was everywhere. The conflict between Christianity / West and fundamentalist Islam was a fact. At the same time, the Russians were living in Chechnya with the negative consequences of Muslim terrorism. Southeast Asia, in turn, was transformed into a field of action by Al Qaeda.
In December 2010, protesters flooded the streets in Tunis. They protested against Ben Ali's secular, authoritarian and long-standing regime. The demonstrations with the new year quickly spread to other states with authoritarian regimes and were called "Arab Spring". The name was a variation of the "Spring of the Peoples" a series of uprisings and revolutions by European people, demanding better economic, social and political conditions that shook the monarchies in Europe in the 19th century. The same demands were made by the Arab protesters.
However, Arab uprisings would bring radical Islam into a more upgraded form. The regimes in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen collapsed and within chaos, a vacuum of power and security was created that Islamists covered except for Tunisia. Guerrilla warfare divisions began to operate in Libya and Egypt, bringing the authorities into trouble. At the same time, in Syria, where the demonstrations were many, the Assad regime resisted. Then, the West used a "tool" that had also been used in Afghanistan: the equipment of the opposition and the entry of radical Islamists in the country to take action against the government. Thus, Islamism was used to crush a Muslim and more liberal regime that was not so pro-Western. At the same time, in May 2011, a US Army special forces operation contributed to the killing of Al-Qaeda's leader in Pakistan, an act that caused awe and anger.
These actions created ISIS. Its action began in Iraq and expanded to Syria, on lands not controlled by the Syrian Army. Thus, the civil war between the government and the opposition became transnational as Islamic militants entered it, as well as the most powerful countries on the planet. From 2013 to 2017, the Assad regime suffered many shocks, but it did not collapse. In the period 2014-2016, ISIS was powerful. It controlled much of Iraq and Syria forcing the US to form a coalition to fight it. It had evolved into a global threat because it had not only made more victories than Al-Qaeda in the battlefield but also because it could recruit militants from all over the world - Muslim and non-Muslim. The promise of military action, a better life based on traditional customs and the ultimate goal of establishing a global caliphate, were quite convincing reasons to attract many members. In addition to military success, ISIS fans have carried out many terrorist acts in Europe, imitating al-Qaida and causing terror in Western societies. Finally, ISIS skillfully exploited the internet to establish a "digital caliphate" that would make it an important player in cyberspace and it could bring its message to every Muslim wherever he/she may be. It was obvious that he had overshadowed al-Qaida.
However, the concerted military action of the West and Russia against the Islamic State has helped to see in our days that its lifetime is measured. However, despite the military successes, the Islamic State will not be easily eliminated. The internet will be used as a weapon from it. Still, from Africa to Central Asia, new Islamic armed organizations appear to be extremely lethal, mimicking ISIS and claiming to be subordinate to it. Especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and in the Maghreb, the situation is degraded. It is no coincidence that the US is sending military missions to train local armies as well as financial assistance to improve the lives of citizens there. However, these actions, although reducing the phenomenon of international Islamic terrorism, do not eliminate it.
So, which are the causes?
History teaches us. From the evolution of radical Islam, the causes why the weakening of Al-Qaeda and the death of its leader didn't eliminate the fundamentalist- radical Islam. So which are they?
Initially, the root cause is the primordial conflict in Islam. The conflict concerns two major factions. The former advocates an Islam not so conservative and "enriched" with Western elements, while the latter seeks and claims an Islam more conservative, more authentic, without additions, based on the foundations of the first Muslim period and in accordance with its principles Prophet. This conflict is still hampering the Islamic world and leading to intra-Islamic clashes. Part of the second faction is radicalized and thus armed conflicts arise.
Yet another key element is the failure of secular Muslim regimes. In the beginning of their course, they contributed greatly to improving the living conditions of their citizens. However, their prolonged stay in power made them corrupt. The standard of living began to deteriorate and signs of improvement for society did not appear anywhere. These regimes were confined to a circle of officials who were cut off from the rest of society and who were aiming for personal enrichment. The ideas of secular Islam did not dominate the main mass of pious individuals. The popular dissatisfaction was exploited by Islamists, who, through a social policy compatible with traditional Islam, managed to gain a host of supporters. The secular regimes, in a few words, have not won the hearts and minds of the rest of the Muslims. This does not mean that all Muslims are pro-Islamists.
A third cause is the idea of pan-Islamism. It promotes the creation of a Caliphate that will encompass all Muslims, regardless of nationality. The roots for the realization of this idea go back to Afghanistan between 1979 and 1989 while ISIS, which declared it in the territories it held, seemed to realize it to a certain extent. It is no coincidence that Muslims from all over the world rushed to be classified as warriors to fight against the "infidels" of secular regimes and later of the West. The supreme idea of a pan-Islamic state is enough to mobilize the pious people wherever they are, especially the young ones. Islam is not just a religion with some obligations for those who accept it. Islam is a way of life. It regulates every aspect of the believer's personal and public life. It is not strange, therefore, that the Muslim communities in the western societies, despite the support they have received and the assimilation that has taken place, have into their body people who place Islam above personal interest, not least above the interest of the Christian western world. pan-Islamism is above any terrorist organization occurring from time to time.
In addition, some Western countries and especially the USA have a major responsibility for this phenomenon. Those were where used the religion of Islam in order to defeat USSR, those supported corrupt and authoritarian regimes in the Muslim world to stifle radical Islamists and those with wrong moves (Saddam Hussein's fall) gave the chance to radical Islam to survive. The US and its allies also supported both the Syrian opposition and the Islamists, so that the latter would beat the secular Muslim regime of Bashar al-Assad. But their policy failed because Assad with internal and external support stayed in power and survived and the emerging ISIS escaped control. Like the Frankenstein monster which attacked against its creator, ISIS has turned not only against Assad but also against the West. Co-ordinated military operations were needed to crash it, even in the military sector.
From the above, it is evident that Islamic radicalism not only was not defeated by the death of bin Laden, but was also emerged stronger in the period of Arab revolts. Now, in the military sector, it seems to be heading towards the end, but ideologically has not gone. The reasons are many for this development and the ways of dealing with the phenomenon should be carefully considered. Perhaps these ways will be the issue of another article.
Δεν υπάρχουν σχόλια:
Δημοσίευση σχολίου