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| The world in quarantine (Source: Pixabay- https://pixabay.com/el/illustrations/covid-19-%CE%B9%CF%8C-coronavirus-%CF%80%CE%B1%CE%BD%CE%B4%CE%B7%CE%BC%CE%AF%CE%B1-4960246/) |
As the period which will
sign the end of the emergent situation due to the COVID-19 spread comes to an
end, the question of whether the international relations will have been
transformed, appears. Although the analysis concerning the international affairs
was very limited, a prediction of the future can be made.
The
international environment prior the COVID-19 pandemic
Before the worldwide
quarantine, the international affairs framework was characterized by a lot of
incidents. First of all, the rivalry at almost all sectors between China and
United States had affected the main body of the world politics. That competition
was military for the building of new weapon systems, technological regarding
the domination in the environment of the 4th Industrial Revolution,
the importation of new technologies (5G) and the Artificial Intelligence and
geopolitical-geoeconomic as it comes to the confrontation for areas in the
southeast Pacific and the energy resources of that region. In addition, the
economic field was another major area of friction. The emergence of the
“Chinese Dragon” as the new economic power shocked the Trump’s administration.
The latter, hold and still does it a very inelastic stance and it tries to
defeat the Chinese and reclaim the past economic glory.
The historic hostility
between the West and Russia was another characteristic. The Syrian Crisis, the
Civil War in Ukraine, the economic war (sanctions, the price of the oil) and the strife for domination in the
Balkans and the eastern Mediterranean are the main points. The relations
between Trump and Putin were very tense and the willing of the two leaders for
world domination made clear that the confrontation will be continued.
Another event was the
regional competitions in the context of multi-polarization. The Syrian Civil
War between the pro-Russian Assad regime and the anti-Assad forces and the
radical Islamists, the rivalry between Greece and Turkey in the eastern
Mediterranean and the Balkans, the Libyan Civil War, the new Cold War in the
Gulf (Iran vs Saudi Arabia and UAE) and the Yemeni Civil War were of major
importance. If the competition for the domination over the natural resources is
added, it is obvious that the situation is tense.
What is more, at a regional
level, the economic crisis the European Union faced seems that
it will be back. Then, it was the over- indebtedness that caused a serious and
deep economic crisis, which affected the lives of millions of European citizens.
So, in 2019 the EU could be injured, but optimistic for the future because the
crisis had passed and the damaged relations among the countries were going to be
restored to the levels they were in 2008-2009.
Last but not least, the reputation
of the international institutions and organizations was downgraded. The UN had
several failures in handling and stopping the Syrian Civil War, the conflict in
Yemen and the Turkish invasion in Syria. Furthermore, the international law had
been outwitted. More specifically, aggressive actions throughout the world, for
example, the US bombardment of Syria in 2018 and the intervention of third
parties in other countries’s internal affairs, are some of the most serious
cases.
The
situation as it is going to be formed
One of the most serious
questions concerns the framework of the international relations after the
pandemic. Will this be changed or not? The facts speak for themselves.
The Sino-American enmity not
only continues during that crisis, but it is going to be deteriorated. Except
the competition over the above mentioned sectors, another aspect has appeared-
that of the public health policy. More specifically, Washington blamed Beijing
for creating the virus, for not handling effectively the epidemic and for the
concealment of clues for the nature of the disease. China, at its turn, accused
the US for creating the virus and for spreading false information. All those
accusations were expressed, while China has tackled with the problem and it implements its
aspirations. The coronavirus will not change for good in that tense environment.
Also, the regional conflicts
have not stopped. The civil wars continue, Turkey becomes more aggressive in
Syria, Cyprus, Libya and the eastern Mediterranean, while Iran has not stopped to
be a threat to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. The tension in the South
China Sea, in the Straits of Taiwan and in the Japan Sea between Japan and
North Korea has not ceased. After the end of the pandemic, they will continue
to strive for influence, power and resources.
In Europe, the situation
becomes worse. The good relations between the states of the north and the south, which were shaped by the termination of the economic crisis, seem to be deteriorated.
A political confrontation has broken out regarding the circulation of medical
equipment, the economic management of the quarantine’s negative economic
consequences and the future of the Eurozone and the EU itself. It can be
admitted that the dichotomy of the Northern and the Southern countries has been
resurrected, with Germany denying an overall economic survival package and
states such as Italy and Spain promoting that idea. As well as, the German
authorities blocked the arrival of surgery masks in Italy, while the
“satellites” of Berlin such as Austria and Holland are negative to the without
terms economic aid towards the south European countries.
The situation regarding the
international institutions and organizations remains the same. They are
downgraded and the strong countries use them whenever they want according to
their interests. A small exception is the WHO, which is the bastion internationally
of the fight against the coronavirus, but the actions of some countries such as
the US have darkened their status and their function.
Lastly, the rival between
the West and Russia has not ceased as well. The European Union holds the
sanctions while it supports the American foreign policy of Russian containment
in the Balkans. In the end of March, amid the pandemic crisis, Republic of
North Macedonia entered NATO which signed a blow on the Russian presence in the
region. There is not any sign that the stance of the West will change- maybe it
will become tougher.
Conclusion
The COVID-19 pandemic will
be a landmark in the modern history. It proved the inadequacy of many health
systems and, at the same time, the ineffectiveness of the neoliberal economy.
Moreover, it created a humanitarian crisis. Yet, the virus is strong and there
is no one medicine to destroy it.
Though, a sector that the
pandemic will not affect seriously is that of the international relations. This crisis doesn’t
change the attitude of the most countries. The rivals and competitions are
preserved; the wars and the ethnic-cleansings around the globe remain, while
the international institutions underperform. Nothing changes with an
exception in Europe in which the North-South gap reemerges.
The pandemic neither changes nor transforms the international environment. It is still the same. Deterioration
is conspicuous; however its cause is not the virus. Even if the virus didn’t
exist, this impairment would be a real scenario. The next day will be the same
or much worse than good. The global humanitarian crisis doesn’t persuade the
leaders to abandon their interest which cause a lot of problems to their
countries and their people.
