Will the coronavirus pandemic affect the international relations? An attempt to foresee the developments of the next day

The world in quarantine (Source: Pixabay- https://pixabay.com/el/illustrations/covid-19-%CE%B9%CF%8C-coronavirus-%CF%80%CE%B1%CE%BD%CE%B4%CE%B7%CE%BC%CE%AF%CE%B1-4960246/)

As the period which will sign the end of the emergent situation due to the COVID-19 spread comes to an end, the question of whether the international relations will have been transformed, appears. Although the analysis concerning the international affairs was very limited, a prediction of the future can be made.

The international environment prior the COVID-19 pandemic

Before the worldwide quarantine, the international affairs framework was characterized by a lot of incidents. First of all, the rivalry at almost all sectors between China and United States had affected the main body of the world politics. That competition was military for the building of new weapon systems, technological regarding the domination in the environment of the 4^th Industrial Revolution, the importation of new technologies (5G) and the Artificial Intelligence and geopolitical-geoeconomic as it comes to the confrontation for areas in the southeast Pacific and the energy resources of that region. In addition, the economic field was another major area of friction. The emergence of the “Chinese Dragon” as the new economic power shocked the Trump’s administration. The latter, hold and still does it a very inelastic stance and it tries to defeat the Chinese and reclaim the past economic glory.

The historic hostility between the West and Russia was another characteristic. The Syrian Crisis, the Civil War in Ukraine, the economic war (sanctions, the price of the oil) and the strife for domination in the Balkans and the eastern Mediterranean are the main points. The relations between Trump and Putin were very tense and the willing of the two leaders for world domination made clear that the confrontation will be continued.

Another event was the regional competitions in the context of multi-polarization. The Syrian Civil War between the pro-Russian Assad regime and the anti-Assad forces and the radical Islamists, the rivalry between Greece and Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean and the Balkans, the Libyan Civil War, the new Cold War in the Gulf (Iran vs Saudi Arabia and UAE) and the Yemeni Civil War were of major importance. If the competition for the domination over the natural resources is added, it is obvious that the situation is tense.

What is more, at a regional level, the economic crisis the European Union faced seems that it will be back. Then, it was the over- indebtedness that caused a serious and deep economic crisis, which affected the lives of millions of European citizens. So, in 2019 the EU could be injured, but optimistic for the future because the crisis had passed and the damaged relations among the countries were going to be restored to the levels they were in 2008-2009.

Last but not least, the reputation of the international institutions and organizations was downgraded. The UN had several failures in handling and stopping the Syrian Civil War, the conflict in Yemen and the Turkish invasion in Syria. Furthermore, the international law had been outwitted. More specifically, aggressive actions throughout the world, for example, the US bombardment of Syria in 2018 and the intervention of third parties in other countries’s internal affairs, are some of the most serious cases.

The situation as it is going to be formed

One of the most serious questions concerns the framework of the international relations after the pandemic. Will this be changed or not? The facts speak for themselves.

The Sino-American enmity not only continues during that crisis, but it is going to be deteriorated. Except the competition over the above mentioned sectors, another aspect has appeared- that of the public health policy. More specifically, Washington blamed Beijing for creating the virus, for not handling effectively the epidemic and for the concealment of clues for the nature of the disease. China, at its turn, accused the US for creating the virus and for spreading false information. All those accusations were expressed, while China has tackled with the problem and it implements its aspirations. The coronavirus will not change for good in that tense environment.

Also, the regional conflicts have not stopped. The civil wars continue, Turkey becomes more aggressive in Syria, Cyprus, Libya and the eastern Mediterranean, while Iran has not stopped to be a threat to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. The tension in the South China Sea, in the Straits of Taiwan and in the Japan Sea between Japan and North Korea has not ceased. After the end of the pandemic, they will continue to strive for influence, power and resources. 

In Europe, the situation becomes worse. The good relations between the states of the north and the south, which were shaped by the termination of the economic crisis, seem to be deteriorated. A political confrontation has broken out regarding the circulation of medical equipment, the economic management of the quarantine’s negative economic consequences and the future of the Eurozone and the EU itself. It can be admitted that the dichotomy of the Northern and the Southern countries has been resurrected, with Germany denying an overall economic survival package and states such as Italy and Spain promoting that idea. As well as, the German authorities blocked the arrival of surgery masks in Italy, while the “satellites” of Berlin such as Austria and Holland are negative to the without terms economic aid towards the south European countries.

The situation regarding the international institutions and organizations remains the same. They are downgraded and the strong countries use them whenever they want according to their interests. A small exception is the WHO, which is the bastion internationally of the fight against the coronavirus, but the actions of some countries such as the US have darkened their status and their function.  

Lastly, the rival between the West and Russia has not ceased as well. The European Union holds the sanctions while it supports the American foreign policy of Russian containment in the Balkans. In the end of March, amid the pandemic crisis, Republic of North Macedonia entered NATO which signed a blow on the Russian presence in the region. There is not any sign that the stance of the West will change- maybe it will become tougher.     

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic will be a landmark in the modern history. It proved the inadequacy of many health systems and, at the same time, the ineffectiveness of the neoliberal economy. Moreover, it created a humanitarian crisis. Yet, the virus is strong and there is no one medicine to destroy it.

Though, a sector that the pandemic will not affect seriously is that of the international relations. This crisis doesn’t change the attitude of the most countries. The rivals and competitions are preserved; the wars and the ethnic-cleansings around the globe remain, while the international institutions underperform. Nothing changes with an exception in Europe in which the North-South gap reemerges.

The pandemic neither changes nor transforms the international environment. It is still the same. Deterioration is conspicuous; however its cause is not the virus. Even if the virus didn’t exist, this impairment would be a real scenario. The next day will be the same or much worse than good. The global humanitarian crisis doesn’t persuade the leaders to abandon their interest which cause a lot of problems to their countries and their people.